🐻 What to expect in December 📈

GM, this is Web3 Seems Legit, your weekly dose of crypto FUD and fun wrapped up in an easy-to-read, 5-minute newsletter.

As we approach the end of the year and wind down from the 2022 rollercoaster, crypto Twitter has become noticeably quieter and less exciting, which isn't necessarily a bad thing. The industry is buckling down and this is what we are paying attention to in the last month of December:

• Will Caroline speak out against SBF?

• What happens when "crypto is dead"?

• Is a slow recovery ahead of us?

1/ Will Caroline speak out against SBF? 

While Sam Bankman-fried continues his full court press tour to convince us that the FTX collapse was simply an act of negligence, his counterpart, Caroline Elison, CEO of Alameda Research, has been awfully quiet.

If you've tuned into any of SBF's recent interviews, you'd know that one of the major narratives he is trying to push is that he knew nothing about what went on at Alameda, despite being a co-founder.

It's not direct, but his distancing from the comingled trading firm seems like his subtle way of throwing Caroline under the bus. Now we all know she's not innocent in this, but we also know that she was likely heavily influenced by SBF. 

As FTX unwinded, Caroline continued to stay quiet, with many believing that she had fled to Hong Kong to seek refuge. But it seems like she might be back in town to "take care of business".

Snapped over the weekend, the photograph above looks like Caroline freely buying coffee at a New York coffee shop. If you're a public criminal with enemies at every corner of the street, why would you return to this country and how? 

Well, it looks like two can play the blame game. Rumor has it that Caroline has returned with possible immunity to testify against SBF. If this is true, we'll have to see how far SBF's political donations will get him in this trial. We suspect that other members from within FTX/Alameda may start to come out with their own statements to take control of the narrative SBF is running with right now.

Meanwhile, the FTX court hearing is scheduled for December 13th. Despite openly speaking on Twitter Spaces, conferences and interviews, SBF seems hesitant to lie, I mean, testify in court. 

2/ What happens when "crypto is dead"? 

To no surprise, 2022 saw a widespread layoff across all industries. Within crypto, we saw more than 10,000 employees get let go, with major exchanges at the top of the list of highest cuts. 

The first round of massive layoffs has probably concluded, but we expect continuous second and third rounds of trimmings to happen with the full impact to lag a few months. 

What does this mean for the industry?

1/ We expect that the builders will continue to build. Just like how Twitter is still running, work will just be consolidated and possibly become more efficient.2/ The crypto natives will be left building for other crypto natives. Those who are truly in it and understand the blockchain ethos will stick around. 3/ No more flashy marketing and hype (for now). This hype cycle is over and it's back to building. We probably won't be seeing any exciting headlines for a while as the industry keeps its head down. 

3/ Is a slow recovery ahead of us?

After seeing steep rate hikes of 75 bps consecutively, it seems like the end could be near for this plague. The Federal Reserve gave a speech announcing that December will likely see a smaller interest rate hike.

The next CPI numbers will be released on December 13th and it is expected to be another soft landing that could further trigger a short-rally to end the year.

While Bitcoin has bounced back up to $17k for now and crypto Twitter has remained relatively quiet for the past week, we are still on the lookout for another surprise event to drop before the end of the year.

For one, DCG/Genesis has been a ticking bomb since the FTX fallout. With new reports revealing that Genesis owes Gemini Earn $900 million, the fear of a potential bankruptcy has got people on their toes. 

What makes it worse is their deafening silence. If something breaks here before the end of the year, we wouldn't be surprised. 

Hot Twitter Takes

On ChatGPT vs. crypto

Coinbase CEO calls out SBF on his BS

A bad take featuring Kevin O'Leary, Mr. Not-So-Wonderful 

On the tangled mess between FTX, corporations and government 

In other news

• Timex launches a collection of physical BAYC watches and NFTs.

• Coinbase disables NFT trading on their mobile app over Apple's 30% app store tax.

• Elon claims that SBF's political donations to Democrats is "probably over $1B."

Did you enjoy this issue? We'd appreciate it if you could like, share and follow us on Twitter and Instagram.